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This Sunday, the Central African Republic will hold a crucial quadruple election, including the presidency, national assembly, and local positions.

A Crowded Presidential Field

Seven candidates are vying for the presidency, among them former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were cleared to stand by the high court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the current president.

Opposition Hopes and Public Discontent

The challengers hopes to capitalize on widespread discontent in a country where conflict remains a daily reality. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to commend the remarkable recovery of the nation," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is largely predicted to extend his run. He first entered politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent transition period, his perceived impartiality from the warring factions fueled his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

Concerns persist that supply-chain issues and violence could mar the electoral process, particularly in rural areas. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is offering security and organizational aid that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Further issues involve the electoral roll being made available only digitally, a major hurdle in a country with limited internet access. These issues have led to an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "exclude many of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens fear that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 constitutional referendum that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the private military group Wagner for personal security, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has pursued a separate strategy, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Recent reports have claimed the government evicted its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to accommodate a Rwandan livestock operation. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "determined to sell off the country piece by piece."

Amid a recent peace accord with armed factions offering a glimmer of stabilization, the vote proceeds under a shadow of uncertainty and external rivalry.