Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The mean count of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh government data. But, public safety specialists have warned that homicide figures might not indicate improved countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded in these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military operations to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main pillars of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it could hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the country to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.