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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.