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Just two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough query to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

His opener came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.