Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
