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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm approach on Ukraine. After making threats of "serious consequences" last August should Putin carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, he ultimately introduced considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially impacted Putin's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

However, through his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was created by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Invasion

This plan would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the plan actually weaken that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, the former president seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, implying handing Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the president. But, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a charred area of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the democratic government that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Concessions

While freezing in position the presently split regions of these areas, the proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to seize in over a decade of fighting, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses critically weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that are a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he eventually decide to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a move that would make additional hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the proposal places no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal has Russia pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has broken similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of captured territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should we have confidence in this commitment now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the plan threatens a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" if Russia restart its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics vary from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

Another parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not